It has been a volatile few weeks for UK power. A month-long rally reversed abruptly on news of a US–Iran ceasefire, then swung again when the truce proved short-lived. Near-term periods remain higher than mid-July — tighter renewable supply and French nuclear constraints have added strength — while much of the longer-term curve has eased.
September '26 Baseload, the new front month, is around £120/MWh (+6% in a fortnight). Day-ahead Baseload has been trading near £128/MWh. Further out, Oct '26 Annual is about £101/MWh (+1%), while Apr '27 and Oct '27 Annuals have slipped ~3% to £82/MWh and £73/MWh. UK carbon is near £59/tCO2e, with EU allowances around €81/tCO2e.
| UK power benchmark | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '26 (front month) | £120/MWh | ▲ 6% |
| Day-ahead Baseload | £128/MWh | ▲ 25% vs early Jul |
| Oct '26 Annual | £101/MWh | ▲ 1% |
| Apr '27 Annual | £82/MWh | ▼ 3% |
| Oct '27 Annual | £73/MWh | ▼ 3% |
| UK carbon (UKA) | £59/tCO2e | ▼ 2% |
| UK gas benchmark | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '26 (front month) | 142 p/th | ▲ ~8% since mid-Jul |
| Day-ahead gas | 139 p/th | ▲ 6% |
| Oct '26 Annual | 116 p/th | ▲ <2% |
| Apr '27 Annual | 90 p/th | ▼ 4% |
| Oct '27 Annual | 79 p/th | ▼ 1% |
| Dutch front winter (TTF) | €55/MWh | ▲ 4% |
Gas rallied for around a month before dropping on the ceasefire, then crept back as strikes briefly resumed. Supply risk has been rising after a Qatari LNG tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz and carriers were struck by drones in Egypt.
September '26 has been lifted nearly 8% since mid-July to about 142 p/th. On mainland Europe, scarce LNG has pressured storage — now just 57% full versus 69% at the same point in 2025 — pushing the Dutch front winter to around €55/MWh. Back in the UK, demand has run about 10% above the seasonal average. North Sea (Brent) oil has settled back to roughly $83/bbl.
No single indicator is enough — we use several together to confirm a genuine shift. Technical signals are often ‘late’, so they help us avoid calling a peak or trough too early.
A moving average with an upper and lower band set two standard deviations away. When price pushes outside a band it tends to revert toward the average — and wider bands mean higher volatility.
A 0–100 momentum gauge. Above 70 suggests overbought conditions, below 30 oversold; crossing back through 50 helps confirm the direction of momentum.
Compares price to its recent 14-day range. Readings above 80 or below 20, with the two lines crossing, can flag a bullish or bearish reversal.
The relationship between a fast (12-day) and slow (26-day) average. A Golden Cross is bullish; a Death Cross is bearish — though both tend to confirm a move that is already underway.
After a sharp move, the 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% levels often act as support or resistance. The 61.8% ‘Golden Ratio’ is the most closely watched.
We combine momentum, volatility and trend indicators with the market fundamentals above to advise clients on hedge timing with as much evidence as possible.
Source: Marex. This information is provided for general information purposes only and is not advice, or a recommendation or solicitation to trade in any product. Prices are indicative and change constantly.
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